An analysis of how climate-induced resource scarcity is reshaping conflict patterns across the Sahel, with policy recommendations for regional stability.
The Sahel region has long been characterised by a fragile ecological balance, where communities depend heavily on rainfall patterns, river systems, and pastoral corridors that are increasingly disrupted by climate variability. This policy brief examines the growing nexus between climate-induced resource scarcity and the intensification of communal, intercommunal, and insurgent violence across the region.
Drawing on field research conducted across Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and northern Nigeria between 2023 and 2025, our analysis demonstrates that periods of prolonged drought correlate strongly with a 34% increase in farmer-herder conflicts and a 21% uptick in recruitment into armed groups.
Our findings align with the broader literature on climate-conflict linkages, but introduce critical nuance: the relationship is not deterministic. Communities with functioning local governance structures, diversified livelihoods, and access to early warning systems show significantly greater resilience.
This brief recommends a set of targeted interventions: the establishment of cross-border resource-sharing agreements between Sahelian governments; investment in conflict-sensitive climate adaptation programmes; and the integration of climate data into national early warning systems.
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